NCAA Betting: Tar Heels vs. Spartans

One team was expected to get here all along; the other, while respected, is a surprise. College basketball's national championship game pits the North Carolina Tar Heels, the preseason consensus #1, against a hot Michigan State Spartans squad Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit (9:15 pm Eastern, CBS).

As of Monday morning, Oddsmaker.com was listing UNC as 7.5-point favorites over MSU, with a total of 152.5. The Heels were also being offered at -360 on the Oddsmaker moneyline, with Sparty getting +300 to win outright.

Carolina opened the season as everyone's favorite to win it all, and with good reason; the Heels returned all five starters from a team that went to the Final Four the season previous. And despite a few stumbles along the way, UNC won the ACC regular-season crown and entered the tournament as the top seed in the South region. The Tar Heels then proceeded to beat Radford 101-58, LSU 84-70, Gonzaga 98-77 and Oklahoma 72-60 to reach Saturday's semifinals, where Carolina dispatched of Villanova 83-69, covering the seven points they were chalked by at Oddsmaker.com. Saturday's game also managed to stay under its total of 160.5.

Michigan State was the preseason favorite to win the Big 10 this season, returning three starters from a team that lost to Memphis in the round of 16 last year. And the Spartans went 15-3 to win the conference regular-season title this season. Then MSU, as the two seed in the Midwest, knocked off Robert Morris 77-62, USC 74-69, defending national champion Kansas 67-62, and top overall seed Louisville 64-52 to reach Saturday's semifinals. There the Spartans continued their wonderful run by upsetting Connecticut, another #1 seed, 82-73, winning outright as 4.5-point underdogs on the Oddsmaker.com pointspread. And they paid off at +170 as dogs on the moneyline. Also, Saturday's  game cruised over its total of 134.5.

Ironically, the Heels and Spartans played an early-season non-conference game at Ford Field back in December, as part of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. Carolina clobbered Michigan State that night 98-63, holding Sparty to 35% shooting from the floor and forcing 21 MSU turnovers. The Spartans were a bit shorthanded that night, and were playing their fourth game in a seven-day stretch. But even Coach Izzo recognized recently that had his team been rested and at full strength, they still would have lost that night, and probably badly.

Since that game, Michigan State is 27-4.

While a vocal majority of the expected 70,000+ in attendance Monday night will be backing the Spartans, the Tar Heels are one of the best teams in the land performing under hostile conditions. North Carolina is 11-2 on the road this season, and won at Duke for the fourth straight time. 

Those who backed Carolina just before the tournament started are looking at collecting a +300 payout from Oddsmaker if/when the Heels win Monday night. Those who took Michigan State on Oddsmaker's NCAA championship betting board just before opening-round play began got the Spartans at +1,200. And after the first weekend of play, Oddsmaker.com was listing MSU at +2,000 to win the tournament.

And even going into Saturday's national semifinal, the Spartans were listed at +500 at Oddsmaker to win the title.

Carolina, meanwhile, was a -140 favorite to win the championship at Oddsmaker Saturday afternoon.

Michigan State nearly pulled another neat trick on Saturday when they scored 82 points in beating Connecticut. Oddsmaker.com had posted the Spartans at +800 to score the most points among the four teams Saturday. But Carolina, a -220 choice on that board, got a meaningless hoop from Hansbrough with 30 seconds left in their victory over Villanova to get to 83 points.

The totals are 19-16 in Carolina games this season, which have averaged 162 total points. But even as the Heels have averaged 88 points themselves in their five wins in this tournament, four of those five games have stayed under the totals.

The over/unders are 14-20 in Spartans games this season, which have averaged 135 points. But three of Michigan State's tournament games have gone over the totals.

Oddsmaker.com is also offering a multitude of proposition bets on Monday's game.

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